While a few studies on the soft tissue profile changes after maxillary advancement with distraction osteogenesis show the average changes of large groups of patients, there is currently no attempt to develop an individual prognosis for the soft tissue changes dependent on the patient’s individual characteristics particularly for the nasal profile changes. The study’s attempt succeeded in developing a mathematical prognosis for the changes of the nasal profile dependent on the size of the nose and the original distance between the anterior nasal spine and the tip of the nose. This extent has an influence on how much the maxillary advancement affects the tip of the nose. For this, 25 patients treated with maxillary distraction osteogenesis in combination with Le-Fort-I-osteotomy were surveyed. Lateral cephalograms, anterior-posterior cephalograms, profile and en-face-photos of these patients six months before and after the distraction osteogenesis (three months, one year and five years later) were analysed. A mathematical formula was developed which allows an individual prognosis for the nasal profile changes on high prediction accuracy. In all cases the columella tangent was tilted upwards which is directly influenced by the size of the nose. On the other hand it was not possible to develop a reliable prognosis for the changes of the profiles of the lips. This can be explained by the fact that the lips are highly influenced by the front teeth. It has been shown that the upper lip is in average pushed forward a certain percentage by the maxillary advancement.